Excarbity
The Russian attack on Ukraine highlighted the European Unionʼs dependency on supplies of high carbon energy sources, such as natural gas, from the Russian Federation. The invasion, coupled with the preceding period of high energy prices (starting in autumn 2021), led to the EU shifting its focus from decarbonisation and the employment of low carbon (renewable) energy sources to external carbon security - security of supplies of high carbon fossil energy sources, especially natural gas, from third countries. Natural gas plays a key role in the energy systems of many EU member states and is considered to support the gradual decarbonisation of their economies. However, the EU lacks a common policy in the external carbon security area, which prevented it from rapidly reacting to the crisis in the energy sector or adopting a strong, common energy position. This research studies the impact of the ongoing energy crisis on the development of external carbon security policy in the EU. It examines changes in the positions of the European Commission and EU member states on creating a common approach towards natural gas suppliers from third countries (i.e., external carbon security) and proposes a new theory of European integration that sheds light on the said changes, triggered by the ongoing crisis. The project has important policy implications as current events illustrate how energy challenges are interlinked with much broader security issues.This project can provide new perspectives on the position of high carbon sources - like natural gas - in the decarbonisation process.
Duration period: 01.07.2024 - 30.06.2027
Principal investigator: Matúš Mišík, PhD.
Total budget: 200 000 €
Supported by: This project was generously supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-23-0032.
AIMS OF THE PROJECT
Our research has three main aims
AIM 1 is to study the European Commission's (EC) position towards integration in external carbon security and how that position was affected by the ongoing energy crisis. Although the EC was supportive of developing a common EU approach to external carbon security after both the 2006 and 2009 gas crises, presented several strategic documents on this topic over the years, and even included some aspects of this issue in the Energy Union, it was ultimately unable to persuade opposing member states to transfer their competences in this area to the EU. The Lisbon Treaty introduced energy policy into the EU's primary law in Article 194, but explicitly kept several competences in member states' hands. For example, member states can decide from where and under what conditions they receive their natural gas (and any other energy sources) - so several members still import natural gas from the Russian Federation. Joint purchase of gas was agreed by member states, however, this has only minimal impact on overall gas sector. This project will examine whether the EC's response to the current crisis differs from its previous approach to external carbon security. While the EC previously focused on developing new policies or deepening existing ones by utilising windows of opportunity provided by crises, different patterns have recently emerged as the EC pushes member states to commit to particular goals.
AIM 2 is to examine the preferences of EU member states: both those that support integration in external carbon security and those that oppose it. Members that support deepening integration in external carbon security see the EU as a more suitable level for dealing with external suppliers of high carbon sources, since the common position is much stronger than the positions of individual member countries (especially the smaller ones). Most often, the deepening of integration in this area is viewed as a response to security challenges and perceived vulnerability.However, member states in support of deepening integration in external carbon security have so far been unsuccessful in pursuing their preferences in this area.
The project studies two cases: Poland is one of the countries that strongly supported such a development because of long-term tensions with Russian Federation in both the energy and foreign policy area. While it was not successful at pursing this policy at the EU level, the country developed its own response in 2014 in the form of a liquified natural gas (LNG) terminal. Similarly, the Baltic States have also been supporters of deepening integration in external carbon security, mostly due to their experience with supply interruptions from Russia. Efforts to solve this problem by developing a shared LNG terminal have been unsuccessful as the Baltic States were unable to agree on a common solution that would grant them access to EU funding. Ultimately, Lithuania built its own terminal using own financing.
On the other hand, several EU member states have not been in favour of developing a common approach to external carbon security. Since unanimity among members is required to deepen integration in this area, countries that are unwilling to move in this direction do not need to pursue their preferences - it is enough to not actively support the deepening of integration. They can thus impact European integration in this policy area to a high degree and act as veto players. We assume that member states do not want integration in this area, because they: A) consider having competences regarding the energy mix under their own control advantageous (i.e., domestic policy reasons); B)have their own foreign policy interests that contradict a common EU approach in the energy area; or C) favour a fast-track approach to decarbonisation that focuses on minimising the transition period towards full decarbonisation.This project studies these perspectives on member states' opposition to integration by examining three case studies:1) Austria's position on the deepening of European integration in external carbon security, viewed through the lens of national control over the energy mix; 2) the development of the German position in connection to Nord Stream 1 and2 pipelines before and after their shutdown due to hostile activity; and 3) the policy options of the countries that reject the idea of natural gas as a bridging fuel and view it through the prism of the 'lock-in concept'.
AIM 3 is to develop a new theory of integration in energy policy by building on the knowledge gained in the course of the project. Since the EC and member states are the key actors in the deepening of integration in energy policy, their mutual relations determine its direction. This is reflected in the discussion pitting the supranationalists against the intergovernmentalists. The EU has recently been undergoing a lot of changes, to which both the EC and member states are responding. The whole EU is in flux as it tries to find solutions to the ongoing 'polycrisis', with the EC proposing new solutions that include increased supranationalism, which is contested by some members. Major past crises changed the dynamics between these main EU actors and inspired the development of new theoretical approaches. Based on empirical findings about the ECʼs changing role in EU policy making and the reactions(support/opposition) of member states, this project will propose a new model of integration in the energy policy area and thus contribute to the ongoing theoretical discussion about European integration.
RESEARCH TEAM
Hana Antal is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science at Comenius University Bratislava. She holds a bachelor's and master's degree from Humboldt University in Berlin and a doctorate from the University of Leipzig. Her research focuses primarily on populism, system transformation, and democracy in East and Central Europe. She is the author of the monograph "Populismus in Ostmitteleuropa. Politische Diskurse in der Slowakei, in Tschechien und Österreich 2010–2018. Wiesbaden (2024), as well as several academic articles and chapters.
Michaela Hrabušajová is a PhD student at the Department of Political Science at the Comenius University Bratislava and a research assistant at the Oxfordia project. Her interests include the US foreign policy and she focuses on US energy policy during Trump administration.
Matúš Mišík is Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science at Comenius University Bratislava. His research interests include small states and energy security in the EU. He is the author of External Energy Security in the European Union (Routledge, 2019), co-author of Energy Transitions in Central and Eastern Europe (Cambridge University Press, 2024) and has published articles in journals including Nature Energy, Energy, Energy Policy and Geopolitics. See more here. email: matus.misik@uniba.sk
Veronika Oravcová is a researcher at the Department of Political Science at Comenius University Bratislava and a research fellow at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association. Her research interests are centered on energy transition and energy security in Central and Eastern Europe. She has published several chapters on energy transition and papers on the Slovak and Visegrad energy policy.
Anna Polláková is a graduate student at the Department of Political Science at Comenius University Bratislava and a research assistant at the Oxfordia project. Her thesis is on the position of Visegrad Group countries on climate policy.
Veronika Jursová Prachárová is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Political Science at Comenius University Bratislava and director of the Slovak Governance Institute. She holds a master’s degree in political science from Comenius University and received her PhD in 2022 with research focused on surveillance studies. Her research interests include access to information, transparency, rule of law, anti-corruption policies and good governance. She has published research on governance and energy policy and regularly contributes analyses and commentary to media and public debates.
PUBLICATIONS
Articles in peer-reviewed journals
1) Hebda, W. and Mišík, M. (2024) In Search of Energy Security: Nuclear Energy Development in the Visegrad Group Countries. Energies 17, no. 21: 5390. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17215390 (OPEN ACCESS)
2) Vakhal, P., Yakovenko, K., Mišík, M., Oravcová, V. and Mattera, R. (2024) Gender and authorship in energy studies: Is there an impact? Energy Strategy Reviews 56, 101581 (OPEN ACCESS)
3) Haneklaus, N., Kaggwa, M., Misihairabgwi, J. et al. (2025) The phosphorus negotiation game (P-Game): first evaluation of a serious game to support science-policy decision making played in more than 20 countries worldwide. Discover Sustainability 6, 1. (OPEN ACCESS)
4) Vicenová, R. and Mišík, M. (2026) Far-right greenwashing: the twisting of sustainability, Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal 17 (3): 905–921. (OPEN ACCESS)
5) Hrabušajová, M. and Mišík, M. (2025) The market will save the day: White house narratives on liquefied natural gas exports to the European Union. Energy Research & Social Science 127, 104197.
6) Haneklaus, N., Vlček, T., Nosko, A., Brink, H., Ochmann, J., Skorek-Osikowska, A., Gładysz, P., Gajda, P., Mišík, M., Bartela, L. (2025) Dependencies of the European Union and the world on Russian nuclear fuel cycle services, and how to reduce them. Energy Strategy Reviews 62, 101923.
7) Weber, G., Cabras, I., Llavero-Pasquina, M. and Mišík, M. (2026) The Nuclear Alliance vs. the Friends of Renewables: environmental conflicts and nuclear energy in the European Union. Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal 17(3): 821–850. (OPEN ACCESS)
8) Haneklaus, N., Hrabušajová,M., Hortay,O., Kökény, L., Kmetty, Z., Mišík, M. (2026) Greenland on X: U.S. lawmakers’ social media posts on critical minerals and geostrategic relevance of the world’s largest island. The Extractive Industries and Society 26, 101867.
9) Haneklaus, N., Hrabušajová, M., Mišík, M. (2026) Strategic relevance beyond resource potential: Greenland and Ukraine in EU and US critical mineral diversification. Resources Policy 118, 105950.
10) Mišík, M., Oravcová, V., Yakovenko, K., Mattera, R., Vakhal, P. (2026) Dataset for the study of gender disparities in publishing on energy. Data in Brief 67, 112896.
Book chapter
1) Mišík, M. (2026) Natural gas: The energy source that almost nobody wants, but everybody needs. In: Magone, J.M. (Ed.) A Research Agenda for European Union Politics. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Policy reports
1) Michaela Hrabušajová and Matúš Mišík, policy report, The US presidents on LNG exports to the EU: Market dominates, 9 October 2025
2) Veronika Oravcová and Matúš Mišík, policy report, Energy security once again? Or how we are trying to figure out what energy security is, 26 October 2025.
Blogs (in various languages):
1) Matúš Mišík, Publikujú muži v prestížnejších vedeckých časopisoch? 5. decembra 2024, Blog Denník N.
2) Matúš Mišík, Gender Bias in Energy Research: Insights from Central and Eastern Europe, The hague Research Institute, 5 January 2025.
3) Radka Vicenová a Matúš Mišík, „Udržať sa v mainstreame: Ako ĽSNS využíva udržateľný rozvoj na svoje vlastné ciele“, 4.mája 2025.
4) Michaela Hrabušajová a Matúš Mišík, Spojené štáty sa stali významným dodávateľom LNG pre EÚ. Prečo? 14.júl 2025, Blog Denník N.
5) Matúš Mišík and Andrej Nosko, The EU is dependent on Russian nuclear fuel – but not for long. The Hague Research Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus & Central Asia, 10 November 2025
6) Matúš Mišík, Grónsko a USA na sieti X: Málo príspevkov, výrazná viditeľnosť 15.február 2026, Blog Denník N.
Opinion pieces in daily newspapers (in Slovak):
1) Matúš Mišík, Európska únia by mala sankcionovať ruský plyn. 20.decembra 2024, DennikN
2) Matúš Mišík, Rusko, nie Ukrajina, je zodpovedné za vysoké ceny zemného plynu v Európe, 2. januára 2025, DenníkN
3) Matúš Mišík, Na Slovensku nie je energetická kríza. A už ani nikdy nebude. 14.januára 2025, Denník N
4) Matúš Mišík, Systém obchodovania s emisiami je dobrá a potrebná vec. 7. novembra 2025, Denník N
5) Matúš Mišik, Koľko kríz ešte potrebujeme?, 20 February 2026, Denník N
6) Matúš Mišík, Návrat ruskej energie do Európy?, 8 March 2026, Denník N
7) Matúš Mišík, Nie zelené politiky, ale fosílne palivá ohrozujú naše peňaženky. 18 March 2026, Denník N.
28) Matúš Mišík, Slovenský paralelný energetický vesmír, 14 September 2026, Denník N.
Media appearances:
1) Matúš Mišík, statement for: Tagesspiegel: Slowakei droht Ukraine: Warum Premier Fico auf Konfrontation setzt – und auf Putin. 12 January 2025
2) Matúš Mišík, interview in Slovak for Hospodárske noviny: Fico mal písať list do Moskvy, nie Bruselu. Za vysoké ceny plynu môže Rusko, tvrdí pre HN slovenský expert. 19 February 2025.
3) Michaela Hrabušajová, statement for Hospodárske noviny: Slovensko poslalo viac peňazí Putinovi ako Zelenskému. Trump práve takéto pokrytectvo vyčíta celej Európe. 12 March 2025.
4) Matúš Mišík, rozhovor k situácií v plynovom sektore v EÚ, 17. jún 2025, RTVS 24
5) Matúš Mišík, vyjadrenie: Trump Slovensku zavaril. Pri nešťastí s koncom ruských energií máme ešte jednu poslednú možnosť, 29.júl.2025, Hospodárske noviny
6) Matúš Mišík, rozhovor k téme energodotácií, 18.september.2025, RTVS.
7) Michaela Hrabušajová, vyjadrenie pre AFP Slovensko, 19.september. 2025.
8) Matúš Mišík, rozhovor na RTVS24, 25.septembra 2025.
9) Michaela Hrabušajová, Matúš Mišík, research mentioned in news, Slovak Spectator, 26 September 2025.
10) Matúš Mišík, podcast on energy policy of the Slovak Republic for for The Hague Research Institute for Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus & Central Asia, 6 October 2025
11) Matúš Mišík, comment for RTVS24, Ekonomika 24, 10 December 2025
12) Matúš Mišík, comment for STVR regarding oil prices, 7 January 2026
13) Matúš Mišík, comment for STVR regarding energy prices for industry, 14 January 2026
14) Matúš Mišík, live interview for RTVS24 regarding the ETS2 system, 10 Februry 2026.
15) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Joj 24 regarding the ETS2 system, 11 February 2026.
16) Matúš Míšík, interview for STVR :24 regarding energy security, 19 February 2026.
17) Matúš Mišík, interview regarding oil crisis storage, 20 February 2026.
18) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Euronews Serbia, 20 February 2026.
19) Matúš Mišík, interview regarding energy security for portal 360°, 20 February 2026
20) Matúš Mišík, comment for TV Joj regarding emergency electricity supply to Ukraine, 23 February 2026.
21) Matúš Mišík, comment for Hospodárske noviny daily regarding energy security and Ukrainian transit, 25 February 2026.
22) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Joj 24 regarding emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine, 25 February 2026
23) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Euronews Serbia regarding oil supplies to the EU, 9 March 2026.
24) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Joj24 regarding nuclear energy in the EU, 10 March 2026.
25) Matúš Mišík, interview for Slovak radio (Z prvej ruky), 12 March 2026.
26) Matúš Mišík, live interview for Serbian TV station Euronews, 19 March 2026.
27) Matúš Mišík, comment for weekly Plus 7 dní, No. 18, 29 April 2026, pp. 10-12
28) Matúš Mišík, interview for STVR, 15 October 2026.
29) Matúš Mišík, interview for Slovak Radio, 20 October 2026.
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